Baguio, Cordillera Bracing for Aging Population by 2035
BAGUIO CITY – The labor force in Baguio and the mountainous Cordillera region is growing larger and younger, a shift that should ideally strengthen the local economy, population experts said during the recent World Population Day observance. However, they stressed the need to encourage more young workers to return home if this demographic advantage is to be fully realized.
Dr. Cecile Basawil, regional director of the Commission on Population and Development (CPD), explained that Cordillera, along with Metro Manila and Calabarzon, is currently benefiting from the “demographic dividend.” This period of economic opportunity occurs when the number of working-age individuals surpasses dependents such as children and senior citizens.
According to the 2020 census, the Cordillera’s population reached nearly 1.8 million. The working-age group now represents 65.1% of the population, or about 1.17 million people, while elderly dependents (60 years and older) account for 6.1%, roughly 110,000 individuals. Meanwhile, the youth segment (0 to 19 years old) has declined to 28.6% of the population, attributed to smaller family sizes averaging 2.1 children per mother as of 2022.
Economic Opportunities and Migration Challenges
The lower birth rates combined with a large labor force signal promising economic opportunities for the region. With fewer dependents, resources like food and water could be better allocated. Yet, high migration rates are dampening this potential, local leaders noted.
Many young Cordillerans have moved away to study or work, often not returning to their hometowns, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2018 National Migration Survey recorded over 44,000 overseas workers from the region, placing Cordillera fourth among Philippine regions for outbound labor migration.
Within the region, some migrants relocate to urban centers such as Baguio City and Tabuk in Kalinga or to mining areas in Benguet and Mountain Province. This internal migration partly explains population declines in towns like Banaue, Hungduan, and Mayoyao in Ifugao, and Tanudan in Kalinga, where even the famous rice terraces have been partly abandoned.
To counter this trend, experts emphasized accelerating economic development in less populated towns, making them more attractive and financially viable for returning workers. Investment in elderly care must also increase, as seniors aged 60 and above made up 9.3% of households in 2020.
Preparing for an Aging Population
The agriculture sector already feels the impact of aging workers retiring. The population plan designates a society as “aging” when seniors comprise 7% of the total population. Cordillera is expected to reach this status by 2026, threatening food production as experienced farmers retire.
Some provinces—Abra, Kalinga, and Mountain Province—have been aging regions since 2015. Apayao joined in 2024, Baguio City is projected to follow by 2026, and the entire region will reach the threshold by 2035 or 2036 when Benguet and Ifugao join the ranks.
Given this shift, government spending must increase for geriatric healthcare and related services. Policies should also support older workers in extending their employment, especially those who face mandatory retirement due to age.
Concerns Over Adolescent Pregnancies
Finally, officials raised concerns about adolescent pregnancies. While pregnancies among 15 to 19-year-olds have decreased, cases involving girls aged 10 to 14 have risen between 2020 and 2022. The most alarming instances occurred during pandemic lockdowns, including a case involving a 9-year-old girl.
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