Senate Comeback Secured in Vote-Rich Cities and Provinces
Former senators Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan triumphed in the Eleksyon 2025 by dominating vote-rich cities and provinces, ensuring their return to the Senate. According to the National Board of Canvassers’ partial results, Aquino garnered 20,971,899 votes, securing second place, while Pangilinan followed in fifth with 15,343,229 votes.
Expanding Support Beyond Core Base
Renan Dalisay, campaign manager for Team Kiko, highlighted that while their core supporters delivered strong backing, the bigger victory was winning over voters outside their traditional base. “Support expanded—not just from those who have long believed in Senator Kiko, but also from those who were not traditionally aligned with him. Our campaign message was clear: the fight for affordable food knows no political color, and neither do the solutions,” he explained.
Meanwhile, former Vice President Leni Robredo acknowledged that their Pink movement base remained solid, contributing significantly to the success of Kiko, Bam, and their allied party-list groups. She also credited the candidates for broadening their appeal to new voters.
Stronghold in Top Vote-Rich Provinces
Aquino led the Senate race in eight out of the top 10 vote-rich provinces, including Cavite, Bulacan, Pangasinan, Laguna, Negros Occidental, Batangas, Rizal, and Iloilo. Though he placed sixth in Cebu, a known stronghold of the Duterte family, and second in Pampanga, he still maintained a strong presence across key regions.
In major cities, Aquino topped the Senate race in five of the top 10 with the most voters: Quezon City, Manila, Taguig, Pasig, and Antipolo. He ranked second in Caloocan and Valenzuela, fourth in Cebu City, and even reached eighth place in Zamboanga City, a Duterte bastion in Mindanao.
Pangilinan’s Consistent Performance in Vote-Rich Areas
Pangilinan secured a spot among the Top 12 winners in nine of the top 10 vote-rich provinces. He ranked fourth in Cavite, surpassing the hometown candidate Senator Ramon Bong Revilla Jr., who finished fifth. Additionally, he placed second in Batangas and Iloilo, third in Laguna, fourth in Bulacan and Rizal, fifth in Negros Occidental and Pampanga, and tenth in Pangasinan, a known voting stronghold of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
In cities with the highest voter counts, Pangilinan ranked within the Top 12 in eight out of 10. He claimed second place in Pasig; third in Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan, and Antipolo; fourth in Taguig and Valenzuela; and eleventh in Cebu City. His only losses among the top vote-rich cities were in Zamboanga City and Davao City, where both he and Aquino fell outside the top 12.
Survey Limitations and Election Surprises
Experts noted that pre-election surveys failed to capture voter sentiment changes during the critical period from May 6 to 12. The last pre-election poll from May 8 only considered data up to May 6, missing key developments in the days leading to Election Day.
“The survey cannot anticipate what will happen during that period. A lot of things happened from May 6 to 12, and there are some outside endorsements that have happened that could have totally changed a lot of things. That is what happened to us, it is possible that we had a time sensitivity problem,” a local statistician explained.
Polling watchdogs also emphasized that tightly contested Senate races mean that minor shifts in voter preference can have significant impacts. With candidates from second to fifteenth place statistically very close, late endorsements and campaign efforts greatly influenced final results.
Key Endorsements and Campaign Moves
Between May 6 and 10, Aquino received endorsements from local officials in Lanao del Norte, Butuan, San Pedro Laguna, the Jesus Is Lord Church, and Baguio Mayor Benjie Magalong, among others. These endorsements helped him top the race in San Pedro, Laguna; place well in Butuan and Lanao del Norte; and secure second place in Baguio.
During the same period, Pangilinan gained support from Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia and Quezon City Mayor Joy Belmonte. He also led campaign caravans across Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, and Quezon City—areas known for their dense voter populations. Pangilinan rose to third in Tarlac, hometown of his late ally, former President Benigno Aquino III, and made the Top 12 in Cebu despite Garcia losing her reelection bid.
Improving Survey Accuracy for Future Elections
Experts suggest that polling firms should improve methods to ensure survey respondents accurately represent actual voters. Adjusting demographic representation and factoring in voting behavior closer to Election Day could reduce discrepancies.
“There’s a possibility that we need to adjust the representation of respondents. Traditional representation formulas of the surveys may have to be adjusted to really bring out the representation of the current voting population,” a local expert said. They also recommended internal checks comparing demographics of survey respondents versus actual voters to correct biases.
Survey dynamics are sensitive to timing, peer influence, and changing voter sentiments, which can all affect final outcomes.
For more updates on Eleksyon 2025, visit Filipinokami.com.