Senatorial Elections Could Influence Impeachment Outcome
The results of the senatorial elections may significantly impact the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte when the Senate convenes as an impeachment court. To convict in the 24-seat chamber, 16 votes—two-thirds of the senators—are required. On the other hand, the Vice President only needs nine votes to be acquitted.
A local political expert noted that there are already seven senators expected to vote for Sara Duterte’s acquittal in the upcoming trial. This group includes Senators Christopher “Bong” Go and Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, as well as SAGIP party-list Representative Rodante Marcoleta, who currently rank No. 1, No. 3, and No. 6 respectively in the senatorial race based on the partial unofficial tally from the election commission.
Allies and Endorsements Shape the Vote
Furthermore, House Deputy Speaker Camille Villar and Senator Imee Marcos are also likely to support Sara Duterte, especially after the Vice President endorsed their candidacies weeks before the 2025 elections. Both Villar and Marcos are part of the administration’s senatorial ticket campaigned for by President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
These senators will join longtime Duterte allies, Senators Robin Padilla and Alan Peter Cayetano, who were elected in 2022 and will serve until 2028. Padilla is a prominent member of the PDP Laban party, closely tied to former President Rodrigo Duterte, while Cayetano was the elder Duterte’s running mate in the 2016 presidential race.
“Pito na ‘yon. Kung pag-uusapan natin ang impeachment, ang magic number kay Sara ay siyam for acquittal,” the expert said. (So there’s already seven of them. If we are talking about the impeachment, the magic number for Sara’s acquittal is nine.)
Senate Dynamics and Possible Voting Patterns
Other returning senators such as Vicente “Tito” Sotto III and Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, reelectionists Pia Cayetano and Lito Lapid, along with ACT-CIS party-list Representative Erwin Tulfo, also campaigned under the Marcos administration slate and are part of the Magic 12 based on the latest partial results.
While allies of Marcos in the House voted to impeach Sara Duterte, both the President and Malacañang have denied involvement in the impeachment process. Determining how senators who ran under the UniTeam coalition in 2022 will vote remains uncertain.
The political analyst emphasized that party alliances in the Philippines carry little weight. Instead, senators will likely consider their personal interests, including potential gains and how their vote might affect their chances in the 2028 elections.
He added, “Kasi ‘yung proseso ng trial, puwedeng magkaroon ng impact. Kasi itong mga senador na ‘to di lang naman nila iisipin ‘yung kanino ba ako may utang loob? Sino ba tumulong sa’kin na manalo? It’s more like, ‘baka ‘pag bumoto ako ng acquittal, baka ako naman balikan sa susunod na eleksyon.'” (The trial has the potential to have an impact. These senators will not just think about debt of gratitude and who helped me win. It’s more like if I vote for acquittal, it might have consequences in the next elections.)
Impartiality Urged Ahead of Trial
Senate leadership has called on senators to remain impartial during the impeachment trial, which is scheduled to begin on July 30. The evidence presented during the trial will play a crucial role in shaping the senators’ decisions.
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