Senatorial Race Defies Pre-Election Survey Predictions
The recent midterm elections highlighted a clear gap between survey results and actual voter behavior. Despite numerous opinion polls conducted before voting day, the outcomes showed unexpected shifts in candidate standings.
Survey firms were taken aback as some candidates who rarely appeared in the top 12 during pre-election surveys secured winning positions, while others who ranked high failed to make the cut. For example, former senator Bam Aquino secured second place in the official tally, even though he seldom appeared among the “Magic 12” in surveys from major polling organizations. Similarly, reelectionist Francis Pangilinan surprised many by landing fifth place despite limited survey visibility.
Understanding the Survey and Election Gap
Experts suggest that many voters decide late, which affects the correlation between surveys and election results. “We have data to show that 20% of our voting population will only decide on the day of election, and another 20%, close to 20% will decide on the week before elections,” explained a research analyst. This late decision-making resulted in significant changes from expected outcomes.
Meanwhile, some candidates who consistently ranked high in surveys fell short in the actual count. Broadcaster Ben Tulfo, Senator Bong Revilla, and Makati City Mayor Abby Binay all ranked within the top five early on but ended up outside the winning circle, placing 13th, 14th, and 15th respectively.
“May margin of error lagi ang survey. Hindi siya perpekto, hindi siya crystal ball. Doon sa margin of error, makikita niyo dikit dikit talaga eh,” the analyst remarked, emphasizing that surveys are not flawless predictors but rather snapshots with close ratings among candidates.
Factors Influencing Election Outcomes
Several events transpired after surveys were conducted, influencing voter preferences. For instance, SAGIP Party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta soared to sixth place after gaining support from influential groups, including the Dutertes and the Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC), of which he is a member. Notably, endorsements from INC came after the survey periods.
Another expert noted, “From experience, ‘yung Iglesia Ni Cristo, talagang solid yun, by solid I mean 80%. My feeling has always been, but kakaunti lang sila, mga 5% lang ang mga Iglesia Ni Cristo voters,” explaining that while their support is strong, the overall voter share remains small, limiting the impact on rankings.
Last-Minute Endorsements and Vote-Rich Provinces
In the final days before the election, some candidates boosted their chances through endorsements from prominent personalities. Vice President Sara Duterte endorsed Camille Villar and Senator Imee Marcos, integrating them into the PDP-Laban slate. Meanwhile, Francis Pangilinan improved his standing after securing backing from local leaders in Cebu and Cavite, both provinces known for their significant voting populations.
These shifts illustrate how dynamic and unpredictable the senatorial race can be, making pre-election surveys a helpful but imperfect tool in forecasting results. For ongoing election updates, visit Filipinokami.com.